The Electoral College has got to go

Out of the past 8 presidential elections, Americans have voted clearly for a Democratic president 7 times. Out of those 8 elections, Republicans have won 3 times. As of this writing, Joe Biden has received more than 4 million more votes than Donald Trump, but the election hangs on a few thousand votes in four states.

There is a point to giving some extra power to small states, so that their interests are not lost in the interests of big states. America is a federation, after all. There are a number of different cultural regions with long history (see Colin Woodard's American Nations for a great analysis). The electoral college, however, is not only the wrong way to do this, it often has the opposite effect.

First, though, let's consider two big states: Florida and New York. Both are now worth 29 electoral votes. Because of the winner-take-all practice, however, New York voters are essentially disenfranchised. New York's votes have gone democrat every time since 1988. Sometimes the margin is less than 2% (1988). Sometimes the margin approached 29% (1996). In 1996, a quarter of democrats in New York could have stayed home, and not affected the outcome. The last time New York went for a Republican, outside of an overwhelming Republican landslide, was in 1948. And by "overwhelming landslide" I'm talking about races like 1984, where the count was 535 to 13. In other words, the only time New York's votes don't go to the Democrat is when the Democrat has already been soundly thrashed by the entire country.

But in 2000, just 500 Florida Republicans elected the president of the United States. There is nothing New York democrats can do to increase their support for any candidate. Absolutely nothing. But Floridian's opinions are critical. No Republican has won the White House without consent of Florida, not since 1924.

Essentially, the electoral college wastes the votes of people in strongly leaning states. Now consider the small states, that the electoral college supposedly protects. My home state of Vermont is worth 3 votes for the Democrat. Like New York, the margin of victory varies but is irrelevant. Amusingly, though, Vermont used to be reliably Republican. And by "reliably," I mean "absolutely." Prior to 1992, Vermont voted Republican in every presidential race but one for the entire history of the Republican party. Even in 1936, when Vermont and Maine were the only states in the union to not support FDR. What this means is that there has never been a day in which any politician has had the slightest reason to care about Vermont's 3 votes. They aren't much, and once you've declared your party, you've already won them or not.

On the other side of the fence is North Dakota. North Dakota is also worth 3 votes, and they are Republican votes, and there's nothing anyone can do about that. The one time after FDR that North Dakota went Democrat was, not coincidentally, the one exception for Vermont as well: 1964, another of the biggest landslide victories in US history. North Dakotans can vote 51-49 for the Republican, or they can vote 100-0 for the Republican, and it makes no difference.

Some people don't like this sort of statistical reasoning. They argue that we all have choice of how we vote, and Vermont could decide to vote Republican again. If North Dakota had voted Democrat in 2000, it would have elected Al Gore. But this is a fantasy scenario. The only question in reality was the size of W. Bush's victory in North Dakota, and the answer to that question had no impact on the race. While half a million North Dakotans watched helplessly, half a thousand Floridians picked the winner.

Rather than protect the interests of minority voters, the electoral college has given all the power to a handful of large states. Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and now Georgia are what really matter. Secondary concerns are for North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Virginia had been important, but is waning. Texas is rising, and may matter some day. When Texas turns purple, it will be all-important, but it isn't yet. There are a few states of minor concern for filling in holes, most notably right now Nevada, but Nevada is unlikely to change the outcome (UPDATE: it didn't). The rest of us are largely bystanders. 

By rendering the votes of most of the country meaningless, the electoral college has created a feeling of helplessness. It is contributing to the erosion of public trust in our government. It was supposed to protect our federation, but it is having the opposite effect.